The hottest natural rubber became the market leade

2022-08-24
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Tianjiao has become a leader in the "adverse market". Many experts believe that under the hype,

when a shares hit a three-year low, the performance of commodities was quite "strong"

except for a few varieties such as cotton, the vast majority of domestic commodity futures closed higher on Monday. Among them, by fastening the joint by hand, Shanghai Tianjiao futures became the leading variety, and its main 1301 contract increased by 3.73% to close at 22545 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3778 positions, a total contract position of nearly 160000, and a single contract transaction of 640000. In addition, futures zinc, silver and Dalian beans also increased by more than 1%

in fact, yesterday's sharp rise in the price of rubber has been very rare in the past six months. After a rebound at the beginning of the year, the price of Shanghai Tianjiao futures has been in a trend of shock and weakness since the beginning of March. Since the Shanghai rubber futures price reached a high of more than 39500 yuan per ton in the first half of the year on March 1, the main contract of this variety has fallen by more than 23% so far. Many funds have also withdrawn from the market. Since March, the total position of Shanghai Tianjiao futures has fallen from about 300000 hands to the current 180000 hands, and the daily trading volume has been less than 1million hands for a long time

"personally, I believe that the sharp rise of Shanghai Rubber yesterday was affected by the news that Thailand restricted the export of rubber, which boosted the belief that the length of the letter sample in the Tianjiao market was more than 2450mm. In addition, the spot prices of Tianjiao and synthetic rubber in the short term stabilized one by one, and the decline momentum of Shanghai Rubber in the short term weakened." One analyst wrote

a message from Thailand really makes people feel like a long drought with showers. The Thai Rubber Association said on Monday that the Thai government will restrict the export of natural rubber from October 1 to March 31 next year, which is also part of the price support plan announced by the three countries rubber Council (ITRC) in mid August. During the above-mentioned period, Thailand will cut its rubber exports by 150000 tons, accounting for 5% of the total exports of the previous year. As a member of ITRC, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia will cut a total of 300000 tons of rubber exports, and their natural rubber production accounts for about 70% of the world. Thailand is the world's largest producer and exporter of natural rubber, accounting for about one third of the world's output

on August 16, ITRC announced that the governments of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia would implement aets (rubber export restriction plan). Under the framework of this plan, the three countries will reduce the supply of 450000 tons through two measures. The first is to reduce 300000 tons of rubber exports, and the second is to renovate 100000 hectares of rubber plantations, thereby reducing the supply of 150000 tons. On August 21, the Thai Ministry of Agriculture said that since the purchase action so far has failed to boost the rubber price, the country may spend another 15billion baht (about 476million US dollars) to intervene in the rubber market

however, the favorable supply side is difficult to fundamentally alleviate the situation of high domestic rubber inventory and sluggish demand in China. It is understood that at present, the domestic port rubber inventory is still high. Qingdao Bonded adopts touch map control operation, and the rubber warehousing pressure in the interface area is large. Last week, the inventory was still about 242000 tons. An analyst in Shanghai said that considering that the pattern of loose supply and weak demand that plagued the fundamentals of Tianjiao has not been improved, and the operational risks of the industrial chain are difficult to dissipate, there may be limited room for further growth in the later period of Shanghai Jiaotong. It is suggested that investors should not blindly pursue growth, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being

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