The hottest natural rubber bear market pattern is

2022-08-16
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Further decline is inevitable after the establishment of the bear market pattern of Tianjiao

in late August, the global natural rubber continues to be shrouded in the shadow of continuous decline, especially the domestic market trend is still weak. The continuous decline of domestic No. 5 standard rubber led by Hainan market is an important reason for the current abnormal weakness of Shanghai rubber. In view of the abnormal concentration of supply and the relative weakening of demand in the next two months, further decline in rubber prices becomes inevitable

recently, Hainan's spot and futures have fallen simultaneously. Hainan Nongken can objectively adjust the listing price of 1 glue, including latex, which is the only way to promote spot sales. Last week alone, a total of 1839 tons of domestic No. 5 standard glue in Hainan were traded. As of Friday, the average transaction price fell to 20331 yuan/ton, down 1093 yuan/ton from the previous trading week. It should be said that there is also a relatively key factor to be bearish about the future market, which is the backlog of inventory in Yunnan. It is said that at present, the inventory of Yunnan market has been saturated, and the new rubber source even has no inventory to put

the sharp decline of latex is also a signal that the standard glue is about to weaken. Recently, the price of concentrated latex in Hainan production area has shown a trend of large-scale decline, and the price comparison relationship between latex and standard glue. Under normal conditions, latex is 3000-40 lower than standard glue. Product details of static steel wire rope horizontal tensile testing machine. The operation of steel wire rope horizontal tensile testing machine is sensitive and convenient, and the price difference between the two is still maintained at an abnormal level of 7000 yuan/ton, which paves the way for the continued decline of domestic standard glue

international spot prices fluctuated with futures. The three major rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia had good weather, stable production, and inventory rebounded. Compared with the declining domestic market, the recent performance of the external market was relatively stable. Japanese rubber futures hovered around 250 yen/kg for several consecutive trading days, and the basic contract around 250 yen had some support in the short term. The recent pattern of internal weakness and external strength maintained by the natural rubber market is mainly due to the fact that the domestic natural rubber market will have to face a more negative factor in the second half of the year, which is the adjustment of import tariffs of natural rubber general trade. According to the WTO process agreement, 2006 is an important year for natural rubber to reduce tariffs. In 2007, the possibility of canceling import tariffs of general trade was basically established. In 2006, China adjusted the import tariffs of composite rubber to 5%, and the general trade was maintained at 20%. 200 in addition, Vertu and Heuer are very likely to cancel the import tariffs of composite rubber for seven years. The most conservative estimate is to reduce the import tariffs of general trade to 10%, And abolish tariffs, Hold "But the possibility of zero tariff is also gradually increasing. Therefore, it is also due to the strong expectation of tariff reduction that the domestic market, led by Shanghai Jiao futures, began to gradually revise the internal and external price comparison relationship.

at present, it is difficult for Shanghai Jiao multi-party funds to hold the 20000 integer level. The listing price of Hainan spot on Monday has approached 20000 yuan/ton, 20016 yuan/ton, and finally traded 147 tons at 20200 yuan/ton on the same day, while the recent month contract of Shanghai Jiao ru609 The lowest intraday price fell to 19990 yuan/ton, and it was deleted from S. the price with the prefix of 2 has been tested again by the iron shoe of the short side. In a cycle of ups and downs, natural rubber has been trading at more than 20000 yuan/ton for nearly nine months. With the advent of the short market, in the downward trend, the supporting significance of the 20000 integer mark for the market is probably only maintained at the psychological level

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