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Iran's nuclear situation is still uncertain crude oil rose to a new high of 3.5 years

Iran's nuclear situation is still uncertain crude oil rose to a new high of 3.5 years

May 8, 2018

[China paint information] Venezuela's state-owned oil companies are facing new difficulties and are worried that the United States may resume sanctions against Iran. International oil prices have risen for four days. The settlement price of WTI has exceeded $70 a barrel for the first time in more than three years, and Brent crude oil futures have exceeded $76 a barrel. However, it is reported that trump will announce his decision on the nuclear agreement on Tuesday, and international oil prices fell back after hours. On Monday (May 7), the settlement price of WTI crude oil in June futures was $70.73 per barrel, up $1.01 or 1.4% over the previous trading day, with a trading range of 69.5 for the past 10 years $84; The experimental method for the settlement price standard of Brent crude oil futures in July requires that the zigzag stress at 5% should be calculated to be $76.17 per barrel, up $1.30 or 1.7% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 74 34 dollars. The settlement price of SC crude oil 1809 contract was 454.7 yuan/barrel, an increase of 9.2 yuan or 1.02% over the previous trading day, with a trading range of 448 6 yuan. The trading volume was 135002, the position was 22786, an increase of 2330; The total contract turnover was 135246, with 23882 positions, an increase of 2446, with a total turnover of 61.501.2 billion yuan

Reuters quoted three sources as saying that ConocoPhillips international of the United States has taken measures to take over the assets of PDVSA, a Venezuelan state-owned oil company, in the Caribbean region. These assets are worth $2billion and were awarded to ConocoPhillips by the international arbitration tribunal. ConocoPhillips' legal action may further hit PDVSA's already shrinking oil revenue and the country's turbulent economy. Venezuela is almost entirely dependent on oil exports, which have fallen by one third from their highest level. It is reported that ConocoPhillips aims to obtain oil facilities on Curacao, Bonaire and San eustachias. Last year, these facilities accounted for about a quarter of Venezuela's oil exports. The plants on these three islands play an important role in the oil processing, storage and mixing of VSA for export, said Li Jianbo, PD. Reuters data show that in the first quarter of this year, Venezuelan national oil company exported 1.9 million barrels of crude oil from Venezuelan and Caribbean ports, down 29% from the same period last year

Venezuela's crude oil exports to the United States fell to the lowest level in 15 years. From the end of 2002 to the beginning of 2003, due to the domestic crisis in Venezuela, the daily output of crude oil in that country once dropped to million barrels

according to a Reuters survey, due to the decline of crude oil production in Venezuela, the export volume of African oil producing countries decreased. In April, the daily output of OPEC crude oil decreased to the lowest level in a year, and the fulfillment rate of OPEC production reduction agreement reached another record high. Due to the economic crisis, Venezuela's oil industry is short of funds. In April, Venezuela's daily crude oil output decreased to 1.5 million barrels. According to the data, the daily output of crude oil in Venezuela is only half of that in 2005. The International Energy Agency said that the Venezuelan data could not be supplemented. The accelerated decline of crude oil production may further reduce the global oil inventory

the Iranian nuclear issue continues to receive market attention. It was less than a week before us president trump decided whether to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear agreement. As of the closing of European and American crude oil futures on Monday, the situation had not eased. Investors believe that trump will take a tough stance on the nuclear agreement and push the settlement price of US crude oil futures to a key psychological level of more than $70 a barrel. The Iranian side frequently made tough statements. After the Iranian foreign minister reiterated that it was impossible to renegotiate, Iranian President Rouhani warned in a televised speech on Sunday that Iran was ready and that the United States would "regret forever" if it withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement

however, on Monday afternoon, US President trump tweeted that he would announce the decision on the Iranian nuclear agreement at 2 p.m. EST on Tuesday. Affected by this, the international oil price fell back in the electronic trading after hours

analysts believe that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the economic crisis in Venezuela will also lead to higher oil prices for the rest of 2018. If the United States re sanctions Iran, international oil prices will be pushed higher

Reuters quoted the concerns of some analysts as saying that the uncertainty about whether the United States will revise the Iranian nuclear agreement before May 12 still plagues the market. If the United States sanctions Iran again, Iran's crude oil export will encounter difficulties. Venezuela's continued decline in oil production has also raised concerns about supply shortages

the net long positions held by managed funds in Brent crude oil futures and options decreased by 3.39%. According to the data analysis provided by the Intercontinental Exchange on Monday, as of the week of May 1, Brent crude oil futures and options held 304265 shares, down from the previous week; The management fund held 591457 net long hands in Brent crude oil futures and options, a decrease of 21029 hands over the previous week. Among them, the number of long positions decreased by 16244 and the number of short positions increased by 4785

the net long positions held by managed funds in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 4.07%. According to the data analysis provided by the Intercontinental Exchange on Monday, as of the week of May 1, Brent crude oil futures held 90430 hands less than the previous week; The management fund held 574917 net long hands in Brent crude oil futures, a decrease of -24724 hands over the previous week. Among them, the number of long positions decreased by 24071 and the number of short positions increased by 653

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